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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink="#954F72" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'>The Center for Philosophy of Science invites you to join us for our Lunch Time Talk. Attend in person, Room 1117 on the 11th floor of the Cathedral of Learning at the University of Pittsburgh or visit our live stream on YouTube at </span><u><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:blue;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'><a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrRp47ZMXD7NXO3a9Gyh2sg" title="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrRp47ZMXD7NXO3a9Gyh2sg">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrRp47ZMXD7NXO3a9Gyh2sg</a></span></u><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'>. </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>LTT: </span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>Carl Hoefer</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black;background:white'>Visiting Senior Fellow Carl Hoefer discusses his work here at the Center: <span style='border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'><a href="https://youtu.be/Fk-c1tKMjhs?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3UcoDtgVe-uhjSEPMYz7LSgBlkO_iVWoag-iLh5I3f9xZj57P15jiJQyM_aem_CYUdO13MOv98o8OX5KVhDg">https://youtu.be/Fk-c1tKMjhs</a></span></span><o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'>Tuesday, October 8 @ 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm EDT</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'>Title: Generic causation in complex, mind-dependent systems </span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'>Abstract: </span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'>Often, in medicine and social sciences, we are interested finding generic causal facts: facts of the form <i>X causes Y</i>, where X and Y are event types rather than specific individual (“token”) events. In these sciences, often we are interested because X is something that is at least partially under our control: e.g., an educational policy that can be implemented, or a public health intervention that can be made. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'>The evidence-based medicine and evidence-based policy movements urge that we base medical and socio-political decisions on high-quality evidence that, ideally, strongly supports statements of this form, <i>X causes (or X prevents) Y</i>. It is a presupposition of these movements, and the forms of research they wish to rely on (including RCTs) that such facts about generic causation <i>exist</i>; our job is just to uncover them. But might this presupposition be mistaken, in some areas of human endeavor and inquiry?</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'>In recent years I have become convinced that this presupposition is indeed mistaken, in at least some contexts that share these characteristics: complexity, strong dependence on initial conditions, and dependence on human behavior. Using examples from the recent covid19 pandemic, I will illustrate the possibility that certain generic causal facts may fail to exist: it is neither correct to assert that <i>X causes Y, </i>nor correct to assert <i>X does not cause Y</i>. The discussion will bring together ideas from several of my earlier works on causation and on objective chance.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>This talk will also be available live streamed on: Zoom </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:#0056AC;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'><a href="https://pitt.zoom.us/s/94175053924"><span style='color:#0056AC'>https://pitt.zoom.us/s/94175053924</span></a></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'> and </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:black;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>YouTube at </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",sans-serif;color:#0056AC;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'><a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrRp47ZMXD7NXO3a9Gyh2sg"><span style='color:#0056AC'>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrRp47ZMXD7NXO3a9Gyh2sg</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>